Beterbiev is arguably the best pressure fighter and best power puncher in boxing. These attributes are ultimately what elevated him in the eyes of the judges despite the punch stats, courtesy of CompuBox.
Why despite? Because Beterbiev was very inaccurate for enough portions of the fight to where you could see a Bivol decision. In fact, many did.
I thought Bivol edged Beterbiev out 115-113, but I had him with a sizeable lead heading into the final three rounds, where he squandered the fight — according to the judges and other observers — because of inactivity as Beterbiev got going offensively.
wanted to ride with Bivol by decision again. Friend of the network Raheem Palmer swung me toward Beterbiev by decision. And where I’m at is this: Bivol can outbox Beterbiev again, sure, but he needs to be near perfect to possible get a fair shake from the judges, if they once again reward aggression over counter punching.
Additionally, Bivol is in a position where, as the challenger, he has to take more chances. And in doing so, he’ll open himself up to exchanges with the much stronger Beterbiev. More exchanges equals less movement from Bivol, giving Beterbiev a stationary target. Bivol will still move and use the ring as best he could, but in doing so too much, he’d risk yet another decision loss.
So first, I’ll take Beterbiev but on the moneyline at -130 on DraftKings. I’m not interested beyond -135, though. Bivol is too good.
So, why not the decision? Because of Bivol is going to take more chances, it also makes way for a potential Beterbiev stoppage.
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Now, I have a hedge I like. On DraftKings, they offer Bivol by majority decision at +1,200 and split decision at +700. I’d nibble on both. If Bivol wins, it’s more likely than these implied odds indicate that he’d win one of these two ways as opposed to the +230 unanimous decision.
It’s betting on not the fight itself as much as it’s betting on judging, and the inconsistency of boxing judges make this either the split or majority more viable from a longshot standpoint.
And if you want to be a conspiracy theorist, the outcome that is “best for boxing” is a close fight going to Bivol to force a third fight between the two, which would make even more money, presumably later in 2025.
But, for me, I want a Bivol ticket, and I don’t think he wins by knockout, or a wide enough decision, given his measly margin for error.
